Dataset And Audit
Matched Experiments
| stage | evaluation | exact samples | pass@N records | pass@1 records | format | truncation | interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFT 1 epoch | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 7.3% | 92.7% | Long looping outputs; formatting mostly failed. |
| SFT 5 epochs | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 4.7% | 95.3% | More training did not fix termination. |
| SFT 10 epochs, high LR | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 99.5% | 0.0% | Termination and keyed format fixed; no held-out exact answers. |
| Expanded SFT, 5 epochs | train pass@8 | 11/488 | 7/61 | 1/61 | 98.2% | 0.0% | 7/61 source-seen tasks solved at least once; manually inspected positives were usually invalid rationales. |
| Expanded SFT, 5 epochs | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 96.4% | 0.5% | No source-disjoint exact answer. |
| Strict RL, 2 PPO steps | train pass@8 | 13/304 | 10/38 | 1/38 | 98.7% | 0.0% | Matched post-run sample; stochastic comparison, not proof of gain. |
| Strict RL, 2 PPO steps | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 97.9% | 0.0% | No source-disjoint exact answers after RL. |
| Expanded SFT, 20 epochs | train pass@8 | 452/488 | 61/61 | 56/61 | 99.8% | 0.0% | 61/61 source-seen tasks solved; this is memorization, not evidence of transfer. |
| Expanded SFT, 20 epochs | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 99.5% | 0.5% | Held-out sources stayed at zero despite near-perfect train recall. |
| Qwen3.6-35B-A3B FP8, thinking | validation pass@8, 8K | 1/192 | 1/24 | 0/24 | 7.8% | 90.6% | One exact answer; 90.6% truncated. The exact trace eventually reasoned correctly but was highly repetitive. |
| Qwen3.6-35B-A3B FP8, clean prompt | validation pass@8, 4K thinking | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 0.0% | 99.0% | No exact answers; 99.0% truncated. |
| Qwen3.6-35B-A3B FP8, clean prompt | validation pass@8, 4K non-thinking | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 0.0% | 100.0% | All samples still looped to the token cap; no valid final answer. |
| Expanded-clean SFT v3, 5 epochs | train pass@8 | 6/640 | 6/80 | 1/80 | 98.4% | 0.0% | 6/80 source-seen tasks solved once; manual review accepted only 1/6 rationales. |
| Expanded-clean SFT v3, 5 epochs | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 99.5% | 0.0% | Two added training sources did not change held-out exact accuracy. |
| Fresh-base SFT, 2 epochs | train pass@8 | 4/640 | 3/80 | 1/80 | 61.3% | 38.0% | Only 3/80 tasks were exact at least once; manual review rejected all four exact rationales. |
| Fresh-base SFT, 2 epochs | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 73.4% | 26.0% | No source-disjoint exact answers. Reviewed near misses were semantically wrong, not scorer misses. |
| Rule-rich fresh-base SFT, 5 epochs | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 74.5% | 13.5% | Official rule supervision reduced truncation, but did not yield a held-out exact answer. |
| Rule-rich SFT + checked Abui source | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 79.7% | 13.5% | Eight added Abui tasks raised format rate but produced no held-out exact answer; all visible finals were manually reviewed. |
| Qwen3-4B Thinking | validation pass@8, 4K | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 0.0% | 100.0% | Every trace remained inside the thinking channel and hit the token cap; inspected traces looped over incorrect analyses. |
| Qwen3-4B Thinking | focused 4-task pass@8, 8K | 0/32 | 0/4 | 0/4 | 3.1% | 96.9% | 31/32 traces still hit the cap. The sole completed answer copied an unrelated example and was wrong. |
| Rule-rich SFT v3, 15 sources | validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 82.8% | 12.5% | Zero exact answers; all 159 visible final lines were read and no alternate-format false negative was found. |
| Rule-rich SFT v3, 15 sources | one source-seen task/source, pass@8 | 1/120 | 1/15 | 0/15 | 86.7% | 8.3% | One exact box in 120 samples; its rationale was unrelated invented prose and was rejected. |
| Qwen3-4B Instruct base | three unseen v14 sources, pass@8 | 7/280 | 4/35 | 1/35 | 57.5% | 42.1% | Seven exact boxes across four tasks, but manual review rejected all seven raw rationales. |
| Rule-rich SFT v2, 12 sources | three unseen v14 sources, pass@8 | 2/280 | 2/35 | 1/35 | 89.3% | 7.9% | Two exact boxes across two tasks; both rationales were invalid. This is a clean pre-expansion transfer test. |
| Qwen3-4B Instruct base | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 41.1% | 59.4% | No exact answers; all 79 visible finals were reviewed. The base model frequently exhausted the 4K budget. |
| Concise selected-trace SFT, 2 epochs | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 91.1% | 8.9% | No exact answers; all 175 visible finals were reviewed. Format and termination improved sharply over the base model. |
| Concise selected-trace SFT, 2 epochs | full train pass@8 | 12/984 | 4/123 | 1/123 | 80.9% | 18.1% | Twelve exact boxes across four tasks; manual review rejected all 12 as reasoning traces. |
| Rule-rich SFT, 2 epochs, low LR | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 94.3% | 5.7% | Matched short training improved completion to 94.3%, but all 181 visible finals were manually checked and wrong. |
| Rule-hinted on-policy distillation | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 90.6% | 9.4% | Dense forward-KL training bypassed zero reward but produced no held-out exact answer; all 174 visible finals were manually checked. |
| Rule-hinted on-policy distillation | one source-seen task/source, pass@8 | 6/120 | 2/15 | 1/15 | 73.3% | 26.7% | Six exact boxes across two tasks; manual review rejected the answer-only Hakhun outputs and contradictory Jaqaru trace. |
| Target-facts on-policy distillation | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 88.5% | 11.5% | A 14-trajectory diagnostic with per-token KL still had zero held-out exact answers and slightly worse termination. |
| Target-facts on-policy distillation | one source-seen task/source, pass@8 | 4/120 | 2/15 | 1/15 | 74.2% | 25.8% | Four exact boxes across the same two tasks; all four rationales failed manual review. |
| Checked-derivation on-policy distillation | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 88.5% | 11.5% | Expanded normalized KL to 61 trajectories and 12 sources; zero held-out exact answers and all 170 visible finals manually checked. |
| Checked-derivation on-policy distillation | one source-seen task/source, pass@8 | 8/120 | 2/15 | 2/15 | 75.8% | 24.2% | Eight exact boxes across two memorized tasks; all eight rationales failed manual review. |
| Structured-analysis SFT, raw solve | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 63.5% | 32.3% | Multitask SFT on checked analyses did not transfer; all 122 visible final boxes were manually checked and wrong. |
| Structured-analysis SFT, two-stage solve | v14 validation 2 analyses x 4 solves | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 92.7% | 0.0% | All 48 generated intermediate analyses were manually reviewed and rejected; all 178 visible final boxes were wrong. |
| Qwen3-30B sparse on-policy distillation | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 90.6% | 9.9% | A stronger teacher supplied 7,808 sparse-prefix targets, but all 174 visible final boxes were manually checked and wrong. |
| Balanced verified-microstep SFT | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 98.4% | 1.0% | Held-out microstep coverage rose from 9/40 to 14/40 and termination improved, but all 189 visible raw finals were manually checked and wrong. |
| Verified-microstep RL, 1 episode | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 96.4% | 2.1% | Exact microstep reward was nonzero, but matched held-out microstep coverage stayed 14/40 and all 185 visible raw finals were wrong. |
| Verified-composition OPD, 1 pass | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 99.0% | 0.5% | Teacher-only target cards supplied dense KL on 3,425 raw-prefix tokens, but all 190 visible held-out finals were manually checked and wrong. |
| Verified-continuation SFT, 2 epochs | v14 validation pass@8 | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 96.4% | 2.6% | Thirty-two manually accepted or written raw-prompt traces produced no held-out exact answer; all 192 outputs were reviewed and none was a scorer miss. |
| Manual breadth SFT v15, 1 epoch, 5e-7 | microstep validation pass@8 | 50/320 | 14/40 | 5/40 | 99.7% | 0.0% | 50/320 exact microstep samples and 14/40 passed tasks; all 50 positives were manually checked. The baseline was 47/320 and 14/40, so no new task was solved. |
| Manual breadth SFT v15, 1 epoch, 5e-7 | v14 validation raw pass@8, 4K | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 96.4% | 1.0% | 0/192 exact samples and 0/24 passed records; all 192 final-answer fields were manually inspected. The breadth update is not the current model checkpoint. |
| Manual breadth SFT v16, 1 epoch, 5e-7 | microstep validation pass@8 | 47/320 | 13/40 | 5/40 | 99.7% | 0.0% | 47/320 exact microstep samples and 13/40 passed tasks; all 47 positives were manually checked. It lost the prior Arammba-36 positive and solved no new task relative to v15. |
| Manual breadth SFT v16, 1 epoch, 5e-7 | v14 validation raw pass@8, 4K | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0/24 | 97.9% | 1.0% | 0/192 exact samples and 0/24 passed records; all 192 final-answer fields were inspected. The v16 checkpoint is retained for comparison but not selected. |
| Manual breadth SFT v16, 1 epoch, 5e-7 | Micmac source-seen train pass@8, 4K | 2/72 | 2/9 | 0/9 | 98.6% | 1.4% | 2/72 exact samples and 2/9 passed records. Both exact finals were manually read and rejected as reasoning traces: one invented rules and one looped for 4.9K tokens before guessing the correct spelling. |
Verified Microsteps
These 40 source-disjoint intermediate tasks were transcribed from six rendered official solution pages. The scorer requires a keyed JSON answer and only reviewed semantic equivalences.
| model | correct samples | pass@8 tasks |
|---|---|---|
| Qwen3-4B base | 57/320 | 9/40 |
| Selected-trace SFT | 58/320 | 9/40 |
| Balanced microstep SFT | 47/320 | 14/40 |
| Balanced SFT + microstep RL | 48/320 | 14/40 |
| Qwen3-30B FP8 raw | 38/320 | 6/40 |
| Balanced SFT + composition OPD | 47/320 | 13/40 |
| Balanced SFT + verified continuations | 47/320 | 13/40 |
| Balanced SFT + v15 manual breadth | 50/320 | 14/40 |
| Balanced SFT + v16 manual breadth | 47/320 | 13/40 |
Verified Composition
Target-specific cards contain manually checked components but no complete accepted answer unit. They are teacher-only diagnostics, never raw evaluation inputs. Exact traces were manually reviewed before being counted as valid reasoning.
| condition | exact finals | pass@8 records | valid rationales | access |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic verified source facts | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0 | privileged diagnostic |
| Target-specific verified cards | 23/192 | 9/24 | 13 | privileged diagnostic |
| After composition OPD, raw prompt | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0 | raw prompt |
| After verified-continuation SFT, raw prompt | 0/192 | 0/24 | 0 | raw prompt |
Scaffold Diagnostic
The same six held-out focus records were sampled eight times per method. These prompts expose checked facts or answers and measure whether a useful student-like trace can be elicited; they are not raw-task scores.
| method | exact samples | records solved | format | truncation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| answer_trusted_parse | 48.0/48 | 6/6 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| rule_decomposition | 8.0/48 | 3/6 | 95.8% | 0.0% |
| target_decomposition | 0.0/48 | 0/6 | 95.8% | 0.0% |
| trusted_parse | 23.0/48 | 5/6 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| verified_rule | 7.0/48 | 3/6 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Answer-Conditioned Trace Audit
Exact final answers were common because the target answer was supplied. Manual review still rejected every newly sampled v14 trace because at least one derivation claim contradicted the examples, misquoted a rule, or was unsupported.
| condition | exact finals | records with exact | traces reviewed | accepted rationales |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| verified answer only | 90/96 | 24/24 | 24 | 0 |
| verified answer + official rules | 89/96 | 24/24 | 24 | 0 |
| v14 answer + checked source rules | 32/32 | 4/4 | 32 | 0 |
| v14 answer + checked target derivation | 32/32 | 4/4 | 32 | 0 |
| Hakhun answer + checked target derivation | 40/40 | 10/10 | 40 | 0 |
Conclusions
- The broad 555-record corpus has complete source-level issue coverage, not complete correction: all 130 source problems still have unresolved findings and all 555 records are marked not ready.
- The current deterministic v14 set has 123 train and 24 validation tasks from 15 and 3 source problems. Every task and label was checked against rendered official problem and solution pages, and the source split is disjoint.
- The v15 manual expansion adds 23 directly transcribed Lakhota and Catalan tasks, bringing the checked training set to 146 tasks from 17 source problems. A second visual read corrected two Lakhota transcription errors before training.
- The v16 manual expansion adds 9 Micmac transcription and orthography tasks from the rendered 2008 problem and solution pages, bringing the checked training set to 155 tasks from 18 source problems. The PDF's visual schwa and text-layer @ encoding are represented explicitly rather than silently conflated.
- The matched v16 breadth SFT update regressed microstep coverage from 50/320 and 14/40 in v15 to 47/320 and 13/40, lost the prior Arammba-36 positive, and remained 0/192 on raw held-out answers. It is not the selected checkpoint.
- On the nine new Micmac source-seen tasks, v16 produced only 2/72 exact finals; both were manually rejected as reasoning traces, confirming that exact final reward is still not a reliable process label even on the corrected expansion.
- The clean v11 prompt preserves all v10 targets and labels while removing token-budget instructions that distracted generation.
- Several earlier expanded-SFT runs inherited a ten-epoch checkpoint that had already memorized the original training tasks. They cannot establish clean transfer from Qwen3-4B.
- Fresh-base two-epoch SFT produced four exact train samples and zero validation exact samples; manual review rejected all four rationales as unsupported guesses.
- Adding official source-level rules to fresh-base SFT reduced truncation but still produced zero held-out exact answers. Its two source-seen exact outputs also had invalid reasoning.
- Adding eight directly checked Abui tasks produced zero held-out exact answers. The only exact result in a 12-source training probe had an invented rationale, and the model failed all eight samples on the new source-seen Abui task.
- Adding 35 checked Kimbundu, Hakhun, and Terena tasks produced zero exact validation answers after matched five-epoch rule-rich SFT. The 15-source source-seen probe found only one exact box in 120 samples, with an invalid rationale.
- Before those 35 tasks entered training, the base model found seven exact boxes and the 12-source checkpoint found two across 280 samples each. Manual review rejected all nine raw rationales because they contained false or contradictory claims.
- Giving Qwen3-4B checked source rules or target-specific derivations made all 104 scaffolded final boxes exact, but strict manual review accepted zero raw traces. Useful distillation data still requires manual correction.
- A two-epoch, 5e-6 LoRA bootstrap on all 123 concise checked traces improved validation format from 41.1% to 91.1% and reduced truncation from 59.4% to 8.9%, but validation exact accuracy remained zero.
- The same concise checkpoint produced 12 exact boxes across four source-seen tasks in a 984-sample train probe. Manual review accepted zero as reasoning traces: most were answer-only, and the long traces contained false intermediate claims.
- Qwen3-4B Thinking used the full 4K budget on every validation sample. At 8K, 31/32 focused samples still truncated; manual review found unstable rule assignments and repetition rather than near-complete correct solutions.
- Five-epoch expanded SFT produced sparse source-seen exact answers; 20 epochs memorized all 61 train tasks while validation remained zero.
- Qwen3.6-35B-A3B found one of 24 held-out tasks across eight 8K samples, but severe repetition and truncation make its raw traces unsuitable for SFT.
- Thinking-channel-aware scoring ignores draft boxes before the last closing thinking tag. Re-scoring confirmed that the remaining zeroes are model errors, not alternate-format false negatives.
- Answer conditioning made 90/96 final boxes exact, and adding official rules made 89/96 exact, but manual review accepted 0/24 first traces in each condition. The model usually copied the target while inventing the derivation.
- Adding 19 checked Ubykh and Koryak tasks did not produce a held-out exact answer after matched five-epoch SFT. Only one of six source-seen exact outputs had an acceptable rationale.
- Only 2 of 13 strict-correct post-RL samples had manually acceptable reasoning. Exact final-answer reward must not be used as a rationale-quality label.
- Accuracy-only RL and verifier-grounded RLSD remain closed: the selected-trace checkpoint has no source-disjoint exact reward and no manually valid exact reasoning trace.
- Direct on-policy distillation is not blocked by zero rewards. The first rule-hinted forward-KL pilot trained on raw student prefixes, but it produced zero held-out exact answers and zero valid exact rationales; stronger target-specific facts require a small leakage-audited test.
- A second target-facts OPD diagnostic used mean per-token KL but covered only 14 trajectories from four sources. It also produced zero held-out exact answers and zero valid exact rationales, so neither direct-KL objective should be scaled as implemented.
- A corrected four-condition reference audit found low alignment (cosine 0.213) between question-conditioned and reference-only effects, so reference subtraction was not justified.
- Expanded checked-derivation OPD covered 61 raw prefixes, 12 sources, 15,499 tokens, and 16 updates. It still produced zero held-out exact answers; all eight source-probe exact outputs had invalid or absent reasoning. Direct KL is closed pending a different supervised intermediate representation.
- A matched prefix-compatibility audit found 0.869 mean top-16 overlap and 99.4% privileged-teacher acceptance of sampled student tokens. Prune-OPD weighting would retain all 15,499 tokens, so prefix drift does not explain the failed same-model update; the teacher is insufficiently corrective.
- Structured multitask SFT separated reusable rules from target application, but all 48 held-out generated analyses were manually rejected and both raw and two-stage evaluation remained at zero exact answers. Formatting supervision alone does not make the intermediate claims true.
- Qwen3-30B was materially different from the 4B student, but manual review accepted only one of six privileged prose traces. Sparse top-20 distillation retained 99.846% of teacher mass over 7,808 tokens and still yielded zero held-out exact answers; all 174 visible finals were wrong.
- Forty source-disjoint validation microsteps and 100 training microsteps were manually checked. The reviewed scorer found 57/320 base samples correct across 9/40 tasks; sentence-wrapped mappings and symbolic order variants are handled without general substring or fuzzy matching.
- Balanced microstep SFT expanded held-out pass@8 coverage from 9/40 to 14/40 and improved raw completion to 98.4%, but raw exact accuracy remained 0/192. All 189 visible finals were manually checked and wrong.
- One exact-reward OpenRLHF microstep episode had final rollout reward 0.21875 with no reward-fetch failure. Matched held-out microsteps stayed 14/40 and raw finals stayed 0/192, so a second episode is closed.
- Target-specific verified cards that exposed no complete answer unit elicited 23/192 correct held-out finals across 9/24 records. Manual review accepted 13/23 rationales, establishing guided support but also showing that exact answers remain an unsafe rationale label.
- Manual review found four scorer false positives from unresolved Nahuatl metanotation M and six false negatives from exact reviewed formatting or paraphrase variants. Unit-level case overrides and explicit aliases now handle these without fuzzy matching.
- A 32-record, 14-source composition OPD pass used 3,425 raw-prefix tokens and target cards, but raw held-out accuracy stayed 0/192 and microstep pass@8 fell from 14/40 to 13/40. A second pass is closed.
- Guided sampling yielded 44 exact boxes, but manual review accepted only 18 explanations across 12 records. Answer-exposed reconstruction added 10 accepted records, and 10 remaining traces were written manually; all 32 SFT prompts remained raw.
- Two-epoch continuation SFT on those 32 verified traces left raw accuracy at 0/192 and microstep sample accuracy at 47/320 while pass@8 fell from 14/40 to 13/40. All 192 raw outputs and all 47 microstep positives were manually reviewed. This checkpoint does not replace the balanced baseline.
- One conservative breadth SFT update from the balanced microstep checkpoint raised microstep sample accuracy from 47/320 to 50/320 without changing task pass@8 (14/40). All 50 positives were genuine, but the update produced 0/192 raw held-out exact answers, so it is retained as a diagnostic rather than promoted.
- Further work should target explicitly scored intermediate composition decisions or materially broader checked source coverage; scaling the same 32-row continuation update is closed.